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5 Food and Agriculture Policy Areas to Watch in 2025

Sheree Bishop, Communications Coordinator
January 24, 2025

Farmworkers working in a field of vegetables

California is the largest agricultural producer in the United States: our Central Valley region alone produces a quarter of the nation’s food. The decisions made by every president and their cabinet have far-reaching consequences for our farmers, the price and the quality of our food, and climate change.

As Trump’s second term begins, there are many questions and concerns about what his administration will mean for equitable food access, small family farms and the essential workers who feed us, and our planet. Here are some of the major food and agriculture policy issues we’ll be watching, as we know you will be, too.

Who Can Access Food: Food Assistance Programs

Known as CalFresh in California, the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), previously called food stamps, is our nation’s largest anti-hunger program. More than 1 in 10 Americans, or over 40 million low-income people, rely on SNAP to supplement their food budget. Of those participants, 40% are children.

The USDA’s Thrifty Food Plan outlines the average cost of nutritious groceries for a family of four based on current food prices, dietary guidance, and other factors. Every five years, the USDA reviews the plan as a part of a larger Farm Bill that governs food and agriculture programs. During the Biden administration, the Thrifty Food Plan was adjusted for inflation, which increased benefits from $4.80 to $6.20 per person per day in 2025. Though a seemingly small adjustment, it was enough to reduce poverty for 2 million people.

Despite this, Republican lawmakers want to limit the USDA’s ability to adjust the Thrifty Food Plan, which would freeze SNAP benefits. They also aim to change eligibility requirements around employment and income, which could put many vulnerable SNAP recipients, such as people experiencing homelessness, veterans, and parents of school-age children, at risk. Over time, this could remove $30 billion dollars from SNAP’s budget.

In her confirmation hearing this week, Trump’s Secretary of Agriculture nominee Brooke Rollins said that nutrition programs should be “effective and efficient,” indicating that she’ll be looking for ways to make cuts to this vital food safety net program that millions of families depend on to put nutritious food on the table.

The People Who Feed Us: Labor and Immigration

One-third to half of US farm workers are in California, many of whom are undocumented immigrants. This doesn’t include the millions of immigrants who work in restaurants and other food industry jobs. As a nation, we depend on foreign-born workers to grow, harvest, process, and serve our food.

On January 20, Trump signed an executive order that targets and jeopardizes the safety of millions of undocumented immigrants living in the US. Among many harmful policies in the order, it removes undocumented immigrants from eligibility for federal aid, including food assistance. The order also calls for an end to birthright citizenship, which 22 states are suing him for. Stephen Miller, an advisor on Trump’s immigration policy, insists that workplace raids will resume in Trump’s second term.

During his first term, Trump oversaw a significant increase in ICE raids against agriculture workers. In turn, his presidential campaign included threats of mass deportation based on false claims that undocumented immigrants are criminals or don’t contribute to society. In reality, immigrants are essential to our economy and communities, especially our food system.

Every year, the US issues thousands of H-2A visas, which allow people to enter as seasonal agricultural workers. Still, the USDA estimates that roughly half of US agriculture workers are undocumented. Farms rely on migrant workers, whether or not they have visas.

On top of this, the agriculture industry is experiencing a labor shortage. If Trump’s threats to deport all undocumented immigrants come to fruition, then the average shopper will likely see an increase in food prices as farms lose many of their employees and production costs go up.

The Cost of Food: Trade Wars and Tariffs

On the campaign trail, Trump indicated he would impose a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, and a 20% tariff on imports from anywhere else. More recently, Trump proposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods starting as soon as February 1.

In the US, a tariff is a tax on imported goods (meaning anything entering the country). Contrary to popular belief, import tariffs are always paid by the buyer, not by the seller. For example, if an American company purchases corn or soybeans from a seller in China while there is a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports, the American buyer must pay a 60% tax to the US government.

It’s unlikely that a large corporation will pay a tariff without passing the cost on to the consumer. When tariffs are imposed, American shoppers foot the bill: one estimate projects Trump’s tariffs could mean an increase of $185 on your annual grocery bill.

When tariffs were put in place during Trump’s first administration, China responded by imposing export tariffs on soybeans and corn, which led to American farmers losing revenue. Trump countered by paying $27 billion in aid, though these funds went mostly to large farms, leaving smaller producers behind.

Decision Makers: Trump’s Cabinet Picks

Among Trump’s more controversial cabinet picks is Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who has faced backlash over attacking vaccines and other fringe views on medicine and health policy, along with his lack of qualifications. If confirmed, Kennedy would lead the Department of Health and Human Services, which oversees the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), with a $2 trillion budget.

When it comes to the FDA, some of Kennedy’s views, such as regulating ultra-processed foods, have received bipartisan support. In the past, the FDA has received criticism from both Kennedy and current politicians for being slow to implement rules around adding health labels to food and drink items as well as being lenient on regulations around food additives and processing standards. But whether Trump would support regulating food corporations is questionable.

Trump’s pick to lead the USDA, Brooke Rollins, had her confirmation hearing on January 23. Rollins dodged questions about the effects of mass deportation driving up the cost of food production, insisting that this scenario was only hypothetical. She expressed support for deregulation, which would benefit large businesses and factory farms.

Food and Our Planet: Climate-Smart Agriculture

In his first term, Trump rolled back 100 rules governing environmental protection and climate adaptation. Among the list, he decreased protections for salmon and smelt in California’s Central Valley and narrowed the buffer zones that protect farm workers and bystanders from exposure to pesticides. He also reversed a ban on the pesticide chlorpyrifos, which is tied to developmental issues in children.

Since his inauguration, Trump has once again withdrawn from the Paris Climate Agreement and started to roll back Biden-era environmental protections. His cabinet picks share his climate-denying views. At a conference in 2018, Brooke Rollins, Trump’s pick for agriculture secretary, said that “research of CO2 being a pollutant is just not valid.”

Though we don’t know yet how climate denial will shape Rollins’ agricultural policy, we know that, under Biden, the USDA invested billions in aid to farmers to help them implement climate-smart practices (though its distribution to big ag faced criticisms). The chances that Rollins will decrease funding for climate-smart agriculture are high, given the current administration’s views on climate change.